Donald Trump's Second Presidential Term Commences, How's World Expected to Transform, An Assessment

OPINION BY DURGESH KUMAR DUBEY
Are International Boundaries Really Going to Change?
Is the Global Order on the Verge of Transformation?
Where Does India Stand in This Scenario?
Let us try to understand the unfolding developments and their implications.
A picture of Industrialist couple Mukesh and Nita Ambani with soon to be President, Donald Trump has been going viral on Indian social media since yesterday evening. The Ambanis, India’s prominent industrialists and visionaries, who are known to be close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meeting with Trump cannot be dismissed as a mere formality.
This meeting holds significance in a much broader context.
Understanding the Context
Reliance Industries, headed by Mukesh Ambani, recently made a significant deal with Russian oil company Rosneft, worth approximately $13 billion a year. According to this agreement, Reliance will purchase oil from Rosneft for the next decade or so. Reports suggest that half of the oil supplied by Rosneft via sea routes will be bought by Reliance.
This is one of the largest oil deals in recent history. However, what is more intriguing is the timing of this deal. A month after the agreement with Rosneft, the Ambanis were seen meeting Donald Trump, who is set to embark on second Presidential term.
There has to be a context where Trump claims that he will bring an end to the war in Ukraine, and on the other, Mukesh Ambani has entered into a decade-long oil supply agreement with a Russian company.
This combination of events points to one major possibility: a shift in the global power dynamics.
Geopolitical Maneuvering and Global Shifts
As Hungarian leader Viktor Orban’s is making mediation efforts between Russian leader Putin and Donald Trump, X owner Elon Musk is out supporting a far-right party in Germany that backs Trump’s policies but also promises of resuming gas supplies from Russia.
These events all reflect the convergence of certain global political currents. Furthermore, Trump has expressed concern over China’s growing influence over the Panama Canal.
Interestingly, Russia’s response to this issue was noteworthy, as they emphasized that commercial traffic through the canal should remain neutral. This, in a way, is a subtle support for the American stance.
When the world was rocked by Trump’s controversial stance on Greenland, Russia’s response was more measured. Russia stated that the issue of Greenland was between the US, Denmark, and other European nations but made it clear that it is closely observing the situation.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents another challenge. One of the key sticking points in a peace agreement is what to do about the approximately 20% of Ukrainian land that is under Russian control. It now seems increasingly clear that Ukraine will have to make concessions on its land, and Russia may not return the territories it has gained.
In return, Russia is likely to stay more or less silent on issues like Greenland and the Panama Canal, allowing the US to have its way. This arrangement, though not officially confirmed, seems likely at this point.
India’s Position in the New Global Order
Interestingly, India has been notably silent on matters like the Panama Canal and Greenland, issues where Russia has taken a stance. This silence could reflect India’s careful positioning within the global context.
Simultaneously, North Korea remains a significant challenge for the US and its allies, such as Japan and South Korea. Historically, North Korea has been under China's sphere of influence. However, in recent years, Russia has made attempts to bring North Korea into its fold, with India also rekindling its diplomatic presence in the country.
In parallel, Russia has forged a strategic 20-year agreement with Iran, while India has signed a 10-year agreement with Iran to invest in the Chabahar port.
These moves signal that Russia and India could align in supporting each other on key geopolitical fronts, especially as the US faces growing challenges in these regions. Both Russia and India could help USA and Israel in their problems with Iran and North Korea.
The Collective Challenge to China’s Growing Influence
It appears that countries across the globe are aligning—directly or indirectly—against China’s growing dominance. The US, despite being heavily in debt with a $35 trillion deficit, is keen to focus on job creation within its borders, which aligns with the economic concerns of its key ally Israel, who is also trying to stabilize its economy after months of conflict.
India, on the other hand, is viewed as a balancing force in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, where it prevents any anti-Western coalitions from taking shape.
This has been a cause of concern for China, as it perceives India’s stance as a challenge to its global ambitions.
During his campaign, Trump had discussed imposing tariffs on both China and India. However, since assuming office, his focus seems to have shifted primarily to Canada and Mexico—both of which are America’s neighbors.
This shift in focus suggests that Trump’s strategy might be to alter the perception of America globally by turning to its immediate neighbors, reducing reliance on foreign labor, and addressing the domestic workforce.
China’s Potential Crisis
Given Trump’s actions and statements, it seems that China could be heading into a difficult period. Remember when Trump warned BRICS countries that they should not consider abandoning the US dollar for international trade? China, as the largest exporter in BRICS, had pushed for greater use of its local currency in global trade.
Now, nations that rely on China could face the threat of US sanctions if they attempt to abandon the dollar in favor of China’s yuan. It is also interesting to note that when Trump assumed office, one of his first major international meetings was with the Quad Foreign Ministers—a group comprising India, Japan, Australia, and the US.
This meeting, held shortly after Trump’s inauguration, is a clear indication of the rising tensions between China and the Quad nations, which aim to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.