A study from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) claims that illegal immigration from Bangladesh and Myanmar is reshaping Mumbai’s political and socio-economic environment, with implications for employment, cultural dynamics, and electoral politics. This report, titled Illegal Migration to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-Economic and Political Consequences, was presented at a national seminar and has sparked significant debate.

The TISS study, led by Pro-Vice Chancellor Shankar Das and Assistant Professor Souvik Mondal, examines the influx of Bangladeshi and Rohingya immigrants, particularly concentrated in areas like Dharavi, Govandi, and Mankhurd. According to interim findings, this growing demographic presence influences low-skill job markets, leading to wage suppression and causing tension among native workers. Moreover, these changes are alleged to create cultural insecurities and fuel social divides. The study notes a dramatic demographic shift in Mumbai, where the Hindu population fell from 88% in 1961 to 66% in 2011, while the Muslim population rose from 8% to 21%.

The report raises concerns about “shelter politics”, suggesting that undocumented immigrants are manipulated for vote-bank purposes and have possibly been granted fraudulent voter IDs. This, the report claims, poses challenges to the integrity of Mumbai’s democratic processes.

The release of the report has led to controversy. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray questioned the timing, suggesting a political motive behind its release during the lead-up to the state elections. Thackeray also called on the Home Ministry to clarify how these undocumented immigrants entered and settled in the city, questioning the central government’s role in border security.

Despite its claims, the report has faced scrutiny from within TISS, with a faculty member questioning the methodology used to identify the nationality of the migrants, suggesting that more robust data and research are needed to substantiate these findings.